Whether or not Muhlenberg gets to play for the national championship is to a large extent in the hands of other teams. But the Mules have more of a say in the four national statistical championships they are playing for. Muhlenberg is in the top three in Division III in four defensive categories and leads in two, total defense and rushing defense. The Mules are just off the lead in passing defense. Only three Division III schools have led the country in total defense, rushing defense and passing defense: Frostburg State (1989), Washington & Jefferson (1991) and Worcester State (1996). For the second week in a row, the Muhlenberg “D” will be tested. Moravian is 18th in Division III in rushing offense (256.0 yards per game) and 28th in total offense (428.0 yards per game). The Greyhounds have the country’s fifth-leading rusher in Chris Jacoubs. Division III Leaders Total Defense 1. MUHLENBERG, 164.1 yards per game 2. Mt. Union, 178.7 yards per game 3. Trinity (Conn.), 207.1 yards per game 4. St. John’s, 214.1 yards per game 5. Westfield State, 225.1 yards per game Rushing Defense 1. MUHLENBERG, 49.1 yards per game 2. Mt. Union, 49.4 yards per game 3. Mount St. Joseph, 57.3 yards per game 4. Rockford, 67.3 yards per game 5. Washington & Jefferson, 68.2 yards per game Scoring Defense 1. Trinity (Conn.), 6.6 points per game 2t. MUHLENBERG, 7.6 points per game 2t. Mt. Union, 7.6 points per game 4. McDaniel, 8.1 points per game 5. Curry, 8.2 points per game Pass Efficiency Defense 1. St. Thomas, 73.3 points 2. Worcester State, 74.7 points 3. MUHLENBERG, 74.7 points 4. Fitchburg State, 75.8 points 5. St. John’s, 76.3 points

In spite of its fourth-quarter loss at McDaniel on Saturday, the Muhlenberg football team is still alive for an NCAA Tournament berth.

The Mules need the following six things to happen – all feasible – this week in order to earn the Centennial Conference’s automatic bid to the NCAAs for the third year in a row:

1. Muhlenberg (7-2, 4-2 CC) defeats Moravian (7-2)
2. Johns Hopkins (7-2, 3-2 CC) defeats McDaniel (6-2, 4-1 CC)
3. Dickinson (5-4, 3-2 CC) defeats Ursinus (1-8, 0-5 CC)
4. Franklin & Marshall (6-3, 3-2 CC) defeats Gettysburg (1-8, 1-4 CC)
5. Hobart (7-1) defeats Rochester (4-5)
6. Union (5-3) defeats Rensselaer (5-3)

Items 2 through 4 would result in a five-way tie for the CC championship between Muhlenberg, McDaniel, Johns Hopkins, Dickinson and Franklin & Marshall. All the teams would be 4-2 in the league and 2-2 against each other. The next tiebreaker is strength of schedule, and that’s where the Upstate New York teams come in.

Strength of schedule is determined by an NCAA formula that awards points based on where a game is played and an opponent’s record. Points change at the winning percentages of .333, .500 and .667. Johns Hopkins’ win against Rochester would be worth two points fewer if the Yellow Jackets are 4-6 instead of 5-5. Similarly, Muhlenberg’s win at Union gains two points if the Dutchmen finish 6-3 rather than 5-4.

Those two two-point swings would give Muhlenberg a one-point advantage over Johns Hopkins in the strength-of-schedule calculations, and the automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The above is the only scenario that favors the Mules. A three- or four-way tie for the championship gives the automatic bid to either McDaniel or Johns Hopkins, since the tie can be broken without going to strength of schedule.

Of course, if McDaniel defeats Johns Hopkins, there is no need for tiebreakers, since the Green Terror would win the title outright.

If you are not confused enough already and want a more thorough explanation of strength of schedule, click here.