The Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion has released its survey on the October 2026 PA 7th Congressional race.
PDF: PA 7th Congressional Survey – October 2026
Key Findings:
- With Election Day less than two weeks away, the race to represent Pennsylvania’s 7th Congressional District is once again competitive. The latest Muhlenberg College poll finds candidate Bob Brooks (D) holding a 49% to 43% lead over incumbent Ryan Mackenzie (R).
- Brooks is polling particularly well among women, respondents who hold at least a 4-year college degree, and young people ranging in age from 18-34.
- Incumbent Governor Josh Shapiro (D) maintains a solid 59% to 34% lead over his Republican challenger Stacy Garrity among survey respondents.
- Shapiro’s lead is in part due to his cross-party appeal, drawing 21% of surveyed registered Republican voters and 19% of self-identified Trump 2024 voters.
- The economy and cost of living remain the primary concern driving voting behavior, with 80% of voters identifying these as shaping their election decisions “to a large extent”. President Trump’s record, health care, and immigration also register as high priorities for voters. At the same time ongoing international conflicts, for example, Iran, hold particular importance for younger voters (18-34).
- 68% of respondents either “somewhat” or “strongly oppose” the construction of a data center in their community to support artificial intelligence or other technologies, compared to 22% of respondents who are either “somewhat” or “strongly” in favor.
- Respondents generally feel confident that the upcoming elections in Pennsylvania will be conducted in a way that is safe, secure and accurate, with 73% reporting that they are “very” or “somewhat” confident.
Methodological Statement:
The following report contains the results of a telephone survey of 529 likely voters in the Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District between October 6 and October 15, 2026. Respondents were interviewed in English on both landlines and cell phones. With a randomly selected sample of respondents the margin of error for the surveys is +/- 5% at a 95% level of confidence. Margins of error for questions with smaller sample size will be larger. In addition to sampling error, one should consider that question wording and other fielding issues can introduce error or bias into survey results. Interviewing was conducted by Communication Concepts of Easton, Pennsylvania under protocols established by the MCIPO. The data has been weighted to gender, age, party, race and educational attainment to reflect voter population parameters. The calculation of sampling error takes into account design effects due to the weighting identified above. In order to reach a representative sample of registered voters both land lines and cell phones were called up to 3 times. The sampling frame for the study is from the registered voters files of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. To determine likely voters, only voters who have voted in 1 or more of the last 4 general elections (2020-2024), or who is a new registrant since November of 2022 were included in the sampling frame. In addition, only survey respondents from this frame who indicated that they were “definitely” or “very likely” to vote in the November election were included in the sample. Due to rounding the totals provided in the frequency report may not total 100%. The survey instrument (presented in its entirety below) was designed by Dr. Christopher P. Borick (Lehigh University) and Dr. Lindsay Burt of the MCIPO. Additional insights were provided by Dr. Lanethea Mathews-Schultz (Muhlenberg College). The survey was funded exclusively by the MCIPO. For more detailed information on the methods employed please contact the MCIPO at 484-664-3444 or email Dr. Burt at [email protected].
SURVEY INSTRUMENT
PENNSYLVANIA 7th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL
Q1: Thank you. Which of the following categories best describes your current voting status? Are you registered as a ______? (READ LIST)
| Democrat | 43% |
| Republican | 42% |
| Independent | 14% |
| Other Party | 2% |
Q2: How likely are you to vote in the elections this November? Are you definitely going to vote, very likely to vote, not too likely to vote or definitely not voting in the November Election?
| Definitely going to vote | 83% |
| Very likely to vote | 17% |
Q3: Next, I would like for you to rate the performance of a few political officials. For each name that I read, please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the way he or she is doing their job.
First, President Donald Trump?
| Approve | 37% |
| Disapprove | 59% |
| No opinion (Vol) | 4% |
Q4: Next, Governor Josh Shapiro?
| Approve | 62% |
| Disapprove | 29% |
| No opinion (Vol) | 9% |
Q5: Next, Senator John Fetterman?
| Approve | 39% |
| Disapprove | 46% |
| No opinion (Vol) | 16% |
Q6: Next, Congressman Ryan Mackenzie?
| Approve | 36% |
| Disapprove | 46% |
| No opinion (Vol) | 18% |
Q7: Now, I would like to ask your overall impression of a few political figures. For each name I read, please tell me if your impression of them is favorable or unfavorable.
First, Josh Shapiro:
| Favorable | 59% |
| Unfavorable | 28% |
| Neutral/Not sure | 12% |
| Haven't heard of him | 1% |
Q8: Stacy Garrity:
| Favorable | 23% |
| Unfavorable | 35% |
| Neutral/Not sure | 23% |
| Haven't heard of her | 20% |
Q9: Bob Brooks:
| Favorable | 29% |
| Unfavorable | 35% |
| Neutral/Not sure | 23% |
| Haven't heard of him | 14% |
Q10: Ryan Mackenzie:
| Favorable | 39% |
| Unfavorable | 44% |
| Neutral/Not sure | 14% |
| Haven't heard of him | 4% |
Q11: Now, if the election in the 7th Congressional District was being held today and the race was between Democrat Bob Brooks and Republican Ryan Mackenzie, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
| Bob Brooks | 49% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 43% |
| Neither/Other (Vol) | 3% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 5% |
Q12: Are you leaning more toward voting for Bob Brooks or Ryan Mackenzie? (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID “NOT SURE” IN Q11)
| Bob Brooks | 18% |
| Ryan Mackenzie | 33% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 49% |
Q13: If the election for PA Governor were being held today and the race was between Democrat Josh Shapiro and Republican Stacy Garrity, who would you vote for? (OPTIONS ROTATED)
| Josh Shapiro | 59% |
| Stacy Garrity | 34% |
| Neither/Other (Vol) | 2% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 5% |
Q14: Are you leaning more toward voting for Josh Shapiro or Stacy Garrity? (ASKED ONLY OF THOSE THAT SAID, “NOT SURE” ON Q13)
| Josh Shapiro | 23% |
| Stacy Garrity | 21% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 55% |
Q15: What is the single most important issue for you in terms of deciding your vote in the 2026 midterm elections? (Open Ended)
| Economy/Cost of living | 40% |
| In Favor or Against Specific Candidate or Party | 14% |
| Not sure | 7% |
| Immigration | 6% |
| Democracy/Democratic Norms | 5% |
| Foreign Policy/International Conflicts | 5% |
| Heath care/Social Security | 4% |
| Women's Rights/Reproductive rights | 2% |
| Other | 15% |
(QUESTIONS 16-22 ROTATED) To what extent, if at all, did each of the following issues shape your voting decisions today:
| To a large extent | To a limited extent | Not at all | Not sure (V) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q16: The conflict in Iran | 50% | 27% | 20% | 3% |
| Q17: Israel and Gaza | 44% | 31% | 21% | 4% |
| Q18: Transgender rights | 40% | 20% | 36% | 4% |
| Q19: Immigration | 63% | 26% | 10% | 2% |
| Q20: Cost of living/economy | 80% | 14% | 6% | 1% |
| Q21: Health care | 69% | 19% | 10% | 2% |
| Q22: President Trump and his record | 74% | 11% | 13% | 2% |
Q23: Overall, would you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the construction of a data center in your community to support artificial intelligence or other technologies?
| Strongly favor | 9% |
| Somewhat favor | 13% |
| Somewhat oppose | 16% |
| Strongly oppose | 52% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 10% |
Q24: How confident are you that the November 2026 elections in Pennsylvania will be conducted in a way that is safe, secure and accurate?
| Very confident | 39% |
| Somewhat confident | 34% |
| Not too confident | 16% |
| Not at all confident | 7% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 4% |
Q25: Which of these best describes your actions in the 2024 presidential election? Did you vote for:
| Kamala Harris | 47% |
| Donald Trump | 45% |
| A candidate other than Harris or Trump | 2% |
| Did you not vote in 2024 | 4% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 1% |
| Refused (Vol) | 1% |
Q26: Finally, I have a few questions about yourself. Which of the following categories best describes your racial identity? Are you (READ LIST):
| White/Caucasian | 80% |
| African-American | 4% |
| Hispanic | 5% |
| Latino | 2% |
| Asian | 2% |
| Native American | <1% |
| Mixed race | 3% |
| Other | 4% |
Q27: Which of the following categories best describes your religious affiliation? Are you (READ LIST):
| Catholic | 33% |
| Protestant | 23% |
| Jewish | 2% |
| Muslim | 1% |
| Hindu | 1% |
| Other religion (Including Agnostic) | 23% |
| Atheist | 7% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 9% |
Q28: What is your highest level of education? (READ LIST)
| Less than High School | 1% |
| High School graduate | 23% |
| Some College or Technical School | 33% |
| College graduate (4-year only) | 23% |
| Graduate or professional degree | 20% |
Q29: Which of the following categories best describes your family income? Is it (READ LIST):
| Under $20,000 | 4% |
| $20,000 - $40,000 | 11% |
| $40,000 - $60,000 | 13% |
| $60,000 - $80,000 | 15% |
| $80,000 - $100,000 | 13% |
| Over $100,000 | 33% |
| Not sure (Vol) | 10% |
Q30: Which of the following categories does your current age fall in? Is it (READ LIST):
| 18 - 34 | 18% |
| 35 - 50 | 21% |
| 51 - 64 | 25% |
| 65 and over | 36% |
Q31: Finally, to which gender identity do you most identify? (READ LIST)
| Male | 49% |
| Female | 50% |
| Or do you identify in some other way | 1% |
SELECTED CROSSTABS
Brooks vs. Mackenzie
| Brooks | Mackenzie | Neither/Other | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49% | 43% | 3% | 5% |
| Male | 44% | 46% | 4% | 6% |
| Female | 55% | 39% | 3% | 3% |
| White | 49% | 44% | 3% | 4% |
| Person of Color | 52% | 38% | 5% | 6% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 45% | 45% | 3% | 6% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 55% | 40% | 3% | 3% |
| 18-34 | 66% | 25% | 2% | 7% |
| 35-50 | 59% | 32% | 7% | 2% |
| 51-64 | 42% | 54% | 1% | 3% |
| Over 65 | 41% | 50% | 3% | 6% |
| Harris 2024 | 89% | 3% | 3% | 5% |
| Trump 2024 | 6% | 89% | 2% | 3% |
| Democrat | 88% | 4% | 4% | 5% |
| Republican | 9% | 89% | 1% | 1% |
| Independent | 53% | 29% | 8% | 10% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 51% | 42% | 3% | 4% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 44% | 45% | 3% | 8% |
| Catholic | 34% | 60% | 2% | 4% |
| Protestant | 47% | 48% | 3% | 3% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 62% | 27% | 5% | 6% |
| Under 60K/year | 45% | 43% | 3% | 9% |
| Over 60K/year | 53% | 42% | 3% | 3% |
Shapiro vs. Garrity
| Shapiro | Garrity | Neither/Other | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 59% | 34% | 2% | 5% |
| Male | 55% | 37% | 4% | 5% |
| Female | 65% | 30% | 1% | 5% |
| White | 59% | 35% | 3% | 4% |
| Person of Color | 61% | 31% | 1% | 7% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 56% | 37% | 1% | 5% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 63% | 30% | 3% | 4% |
| 18-34 | 65% | 26% | 3% | 6% |
| 35-50 | 70% | 24% | 3% | 3% |
| 51-64 | 51% | 44% | 2% | 4% |
| Over 65 | 56% | 37% | 2% | 6% |
| Harris 2024 | 95% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
| Trump 2024 | 19% | 71% | 3% | 8% |
| Democrat | 93% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Republican | 21% | 72% | 1% | 6% |
| Independent | 75% | 19% | 3% | 3% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 60% | 33% | 3% | 5% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 57% | 38% | 0% | 6% |
| Catholic | 43% | 51% | 3% | 4% |
| Protestant | 62% | 32% | 1% | 5% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 71% | 22% | 2% | 5% |
| Under 60K/year | 59% | 34% | 2% | 5% |
| Over 60K/year | 61% | 33% | 3% | 3% |
To what extent, if at all, did each of the following issues shape your voting decisions today?
Immigration
| To a large extent | To a limited extent | Not at all | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 63% | 26% | 10% | 2% |
| Male | 51% | 32% | 14% | 3% |
| Female | 75% | 18% | 6% | <1% |
| White | 62% | 27% | 10% | 2% |
| Person of Color | 66% | 22% | 11% | 1% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 65% | 23% | 10% | 2% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 60% | 29% | 9% | 1% |
| 18-34 | 66% | 24% | 10% | 0% |
| 35-50 | 57% | 32% | 10% | 1% |
| 51-64 | 64% | 23% | 11% | 2% |
| Over 65 | 63% | 25% | 10% | 3% |
| Harris 2024 | 62% | 26% | 11% | 1% |
| Trump 2024 | 66% | 26% | 7% | 1% |
| Democrat | 65% | 23% | 11% | 1% |
| Republican | 66% | 25% | 6% | 2% |
| Independent | 46% | 35% | 18% | 1% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 63% | 26% | 9% | 1% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 60% | 24% | 12% | 5% |
| Catholic | 62% | 29% | 7% | 2% |
| Protestant | 57% | 31% | 11% | 1% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 66% | 20% | 12% | 2% |
| Under 60K/year | 64% | 22% | 13% | 1% |
| Over 60K/year | 62% | 28% | 9% | 2% |
Cost of living/the Economy
| To a large extent | To a limited extent | Not at all | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 80% | 14% | 6% | 1% |
| Male | 76% | 15% | 8% | 1% |
| Female | 83% | 13% | 3% | 1% |
| White | 80% | 14% | 5% | 1% |
| Person of Color | 79% | 14% | 7% | 1% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 81% | 12% | 6% | 1% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 77% | 17% | 5% | 1% |
| 18-34 | 86% | 14% | 0% | 0% |
| 35-50 | 85% | 13% | 2% | 0% |
| 51-64 | 77% | 12% | 10% | 1% |
| Over 65 | 74% | 17% | 7% | 2% |
| Harris 2024 | 90% | 7% | 2% | 1% |
| Trump 2024 | 68% | 22% | 9% | 1% |
| Democrat | 89% | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Republican | 70% | 20% | 9% | 1% |
| Independent | 78% | 15% | 5% | 1% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 81% | 13% | 6% | 1% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 73% | 20% | 3% | 3% |
| Catholic | 77% | 14% | 9% | 1% |
| Protestant | 79% | 17% | 3% | 1% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 81% | 13% | 5% | 1% |
| Under 60K/year | 81% | 14% | 5% | 1% |
| Over 60K/year | 80% | 14% | 6% | 1% |
The Conflict in Iran
| To a large extent | To a limited extent | Not at all | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 50% | 27% | 20% | 3% |
| Male | 46% | 28% | 23% | 3% |
| Female | 55% | 26% | 16% | 4% |
| White | 52% | 28% | 17% | 3% |
| Person of Color | 40% | 24% | 31% | 5% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 48% | 27% | 22% | 4% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 53% | 28% | 17% | 2% |
| 18-34 | 53% | 31% | 15% | 2% |
| 35-50 | 46% | 34% | 17% | 3% |
| 51-64 | 47% | 28% | 24% | 2% |
| Over 65 | 53% | 22% | 21% | 5% |
| Harris 2024 | 70% | 22% | 5% | 3% |
| Trump 2024 | 29% | 36% | 33% | 2% |
| Democrat | 67% | 21% | 8% | 5% |
| Republican | 33% | 32% | 33% | 3% |
| Independent | 51% | 26% | 22% | 1% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 50% | 27% | 20% | 3% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 49% | 26% | 19% | 6% |
| Catholic | 43% | 31% | 24% | 3% |
| Protestant | 51% | 26% | 21% | 2% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 54% | 25% | 16% | 5% |
| Under 60K/year | 53% | 22% | 21% | 4% |
| Over 60K/year | 51% | 29% | 19% | 1% |
Transgender Rights
| To a large extent | To a limited extent | Not at all | Not Sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40% | 20% | 36% | 4% |
| Male | 33% | 19% | 43% | 5% |
| Female | 47% | 21% | 28% | 4% |
| White | 39% | 22% | 35% | 4% |
| Person of Color | 45% | 12% | 38% | 5% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 44% | 16% | 36% | 4% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 35% | 25% | 36% | 5% |
| 18-34 | 59% | 19% | 20% | 2% |
| 35-50 | 42% | 20% | 36% | 2% |
| 51-64 | 34% | 21% | 41% | 5% |
| Over 65 | 33% | 19% | 41% | 7% |
| Harris 2024 | 50% | 23% | 24% | 3% |
| Trump 2024 | 31% | 17% | 46% | 6% |
| Democrat | 50% | 22% | 25% | 3% |
| Republican | 34% | 16% | 45% | 6% |
| Independent | 29% | 23% | 45% | 3% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 41% | 20% | 34% | 5% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 32% | 22% | 42% | 3% |
| Catholic | 32% | 23% | 39% | 6% |
| Protestant | 33% | 26% | 38% | 3% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 50% | 15% | 32% | 4% |
| Under 60K/year | 45% | 13% | 36% | 5% |
| Over 60K/year | 37% | 24% | 36% | 3% |
How confident are you that the November 2026 Elections will be conducted fairly and accurately?
| Very confident | Somewhat confident | Not too confident | Not at all confident | Not sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 39% | 34% | 16% | 7% | 4% |
| Male | 41% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 3% |
| Female | 37% | 38% | 16% | 3% | 6% |
| White | 41% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% |
| Person of Color | 31% | 37% | 21% | 9% | 2% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 37% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 5% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 42% | 35% | 14% | 6% | 2% |
| 18-34 | 35% | 45% | 16% | 2% | 2% |
| 35-50 | 32% | 32% | 23% | 9% | 3% |
| 51-64 | 32% | 36% | 17% | 14% | 2% |
| Over 65 | 49% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 7% |
| Harris 2024 | 48% | 35% | 11% | 3% | 3% |
| Trump 2024 | 25% | 36% | 22% | 12% | 6% |
| Democrat | 49% | 34% | 12% | 2% | 3% |
| Republican | 30% | 36% | 18% | 11% | 5% |
| Independent | 36% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 1% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 39% | 35% | 17% | 6% | 3% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 39% | 27% | 14% | 14% | 7% |
| Catholic | 36% | 36% | 17% | 6% | 2% |
| Protestant | 40% | 34% | 16% | 6% | 4% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 41% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 3% |
| Under 60K/year | 38% | 32% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
| Over 60K/year | 41% | 35% | 15% | 8% | 2% |
Overall, would you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the construction of a data center in your community to support artificial intelligence or other technologies?
| Strongly favor | Somewhat favor | Somewhat oppose | Strongly oppose | Not sure | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9% | 13% | 16% | 52% | 10% |
| Male | 10% | 14% | 20% | 47% | 9% |
| Female | 7% | 12% | 12% | 58% | 12% |
| White | 7% | 16% | 16% | 51% | 10% |
| Person of Color | 14% | 5% | 15% | 58% | 9% |
| No 4-Year Degree | 5% | 12% | 18% | 53% | 13% |
| 4-Year Degree or higher | 13% | 16% | 13% | 51% | 7% |
| 18-34 | 4% | 10% | 12% | 71% | 4% |
| 35-50 | 10% | 11% | 18% | 56% | 6% |
| 51-64 | 12% | 12% | 15% | 49% | 13% |
| Over 65 | 8% | 18% | 17% | 45% | 13% |
| Harris 2024 | 4% | 5% | 14% | 70% | 7% |
| Trump 2024 | 15% | 24% | 16% | 32% | 14% |
| Democrat | 4% | 5% | 14% | 72% | 6% |
| Republican | 13% | 23% | 16% | 34% | 13% |
| Independent | 10% | 10% | 19% | 51% | 11% |
| "Definitely Voting" | 8% | 12% | 14% | 55% | 10% |
| "Very Likely to Vote" | 10% | 18% | 23% | 38% | 11% |
| Catholic | 17% | 19% | 16% | 39% | 10% |
| Protestant | 5% | 19% | 17% | 43% | 16% |
| Non-Christian/No Religion | 5% | 6% | 15% | 67% | 7% |
| Under 60K/year | 7% | 14% | 14% | 56% | 9% |
| Over 60K/year | 9% | 13% | 18% | 52% | 8% |